Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Crime's Down In South Australia And You'll Never Guess Why

The Australian news outlet Adelaide Now has a piece that looks at falling crime numbers in south Australia. The reason for the decrease is interesting.
"Older people are less crime-prone, so in a nutshell as the population gets older, there are fewer young people in South Australia and therefore fewer being arrested, so it is a natural crime preventative," AIC research analyst Lisa Rosevear said.
One bit that really stood out in the story is while crime is expected to drop 18% by 2051 they don't expect sexual offenses to drop nearly as much even with an ageing population.
The bad news is sexual offences will drop only by 6 per cent, or 97 offences, due to the ageing population because there are few young offenders in this category and offenders often continue to repeat the offence well into their older years. 
"Sexual offences are committed by young people but it is not something people grow out of unfortunately," Ms Rosevear said.
That's not something I would have expected.

2 comments:

  1. It was way too much of a coincidence to me that so many police departments are seeing a decline in crime at the same time. The common explanation has been data driven policing. My problem is that it seems like everyone is successful with the data approach. I have expected an 'environmental' explanation and age was high on my list. Thanks for posting this. It will be interesting to see if professional points of view begin to differ on the reasons for decline in crime.

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  2. Dave, I don't think there is a definitive explanation for why crime is down. It's probably a combination of a lot of factors. I am pretty sure it will be a few years before the cause is identified it ever.

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